The SPX failed to hold weekly support early in the week, then gapped down below the monthly and quarterly pivots on Wednesday. The SPX ended the week edging its way down close to monthly support, but holding above the September lows. This in turn developed an inside monthly uptrend confirmation.
What this means is that September was a DT and October was an UT. If the SPX closes lower than 3270 in November, then we have a three month corrective pattern that should remain bullish and keep the yearly uptrend in place as long as the SPX remains above the quarterly support zone QSZ @ 3107/3050.
The November monthly support is at MTFZ~S @ 3193/3156. With resistance at the monthly pivot at MP @ 3351, which also happens to be the QP. Good Luck and Trade Safe, in what is likely to be a wild couple weeks during the election outcome.
SPX ~ Pivot Zones
gtoptions
Next Wave 
23 comments
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November 2, 2020 at 4:38 pm
gtoptions
SPX wave 4 holds below MP, with wave 5 into monthly support?
November 2, 2020 at 5:07 pm
kvilia
Hi gt, thank you for the update.
Obviously SPX is headed to 3351 pivot now, 3344 is also 50% retracement of the current measured move down. I suppose that there is high probability it gets rejected there and heads down to test either 3150/200 area or QSZ. I’d give it 2:1 odds as C down seems to have only a wave of the whole structure in place.
What do you think of this scenario?
November 2, 2020 at 5:29 pm
gtoptions
I agree, a probable rejection at MP. I also think another low near QS will complete the corrective structure from the September high. How and when we get to that low is unclear. GL
November 3, 2020 at 3:23 pm
gtoptions
SPX daily close above 3401 confirms a weekly uptrend.
November 3, 2020 at 3:40 pm
kvilia
Sold too soon right at the pivot. Still a bit too fast, ES front run hwb short@83. I really like QSZ for a long, gt.
November 3, 2020 at 4:20 pm
gtoptions
It may be a wild ride. Watch that daily close at 3401. That could indicate more upside. Trade safe.
November 3, 2020 at 4:39 pm
kvilia
gt, quick question. I was under impression that once weekly uptrend or downtrend is confirmed, there is usually a reversal to trade some sort of support. This could be the case here ES retesting the lows that now become support.
November 3, 2020 at 5:08 pm
gtoptions
That was the OEW trend confirmation, which I thought was unreliable.
November 3, 2020 at 6:36 pm
gtoptions
I misread your question on this. Sorry. You are correct, once a WUT is confirmed, sometimes but not always there is a pullback to weekly support. If we don’t get the UT then best case would be a LL into monthly/quarterly support.
November 4, 2020 at 12:06 am
gtoptions
ESZ Futures +/-7% Limits @ the close…..
https://www.tradingview.com/x/J6fT3HUQ/
November 4, 2020 at 1:44 pm
kvilia
Thank you, gt.
November 5, 2020 at 1:41 pm
gtoptions
The SPX can continue to trade inside the monthly and quarterly zones. If it fails a M/Q resistance it could drop right back to M/Q support.
What happened to “ markets don’t like uncertainty”!!!
Trade the ranges until they break. GL
November 5, 2020 at 1:45 pm
gtoptions
November 5, 2020 at 4:30 pm
kvilia
Yes, crazy action. Tom McClellan anticipates retest of the lows, let’s see if this party is real 🙂
November 5, 2020 at 4:35 pm
gtoptions
I would rather see it retest the low or the QSZ.
November 5, 2020 at 11:49 pm
gtoptions
Three taps of the upper channel and into monthly R… If it holds then down to the lower channel and QS?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/U4eraNdV/
November 6, 2020 at 4:23 pm
gtoptions
SPX remains above weekly pivot support in the coming weeks, the weekly uptrend should continue.
November 6, 2020 at 4:28 pm
kvilia
GT, I was just thinking about that 🙂 If the daily close is above 3520, ES will be a rocket ship. Otherwise, either your setup or slightly higher high for the low if there is a wedge instead of a parallel channel.
Have a good weekend!
November 6, 2020 at 4:43 pm
gtoptions
Agree. With such a strong move off the low I would look for long set ups rather than trying to short this beast. Enjoy your weekend.
November 9, 2020 at 2:33 pm
gtoptions
The SPX will open the week near the top of the QRZ 3594/3652. The 5 year R .618 is at 3663. A break above these levels would clear the path to further upside and the next 5YR @ 4216. If the SPX fails at the QRZ, then look for a retest of the MTFZ breakout to hold bullish or break bearish. Good Luck
November 9, 2020 at 2:34 pm
gtoptions
https://www.tradingview.com/x/atz9H1nI/
November 11, 2020 at 8:40 pm
kvilia
Hey, GT, SPX is setting up for a nice short here IMO. All I can see are megaphones all over the place LOL
November 12, 2020 at 6:37 pm
gtoptions
Monthly t/f zone breakout fails it’s possible the SPX drops back to the QSZ.