SPX ~ Weekend Update

The SPX has corrected just over 10% since the beginning of September, and confirmed a monthly downtrend with the drop below the MTFZ~S.  So far this drop has also confirmed three weekly trends, which may have completed the monthly DT just above key monthly support at 3202.

The SPX dropped below the MTFZ~S, but then closed the week back above the lower level at 3291. If the downtrend is complete the SPX should confirm a weekly uptrend with a daily close above 3316 and continue up into monthly resistance and potentially new all time highs. There are only three days left in September, and the third quarter. The dynamic October monthly and fourth quarter pivots are displayed on the chart below. These pivots, which may move up or down by the end of month, will determine the range going into the years end.

I believe the entire quarterly range may come into play with the upcoming US Election. So hold on tight! This belief is not completely based on a volatile election outcome, but historically based on a similar yearly pivot pattern that can be seen on the weekly chart below. I only provide examples from the 2009 low, but this pattern has a near identical outcome every time the SPX corrects into yearly pivot zone support and swings into yearly pivot zone resistance. The ideal Bullish outcome would be a new all time high going into October, then a drop into the Quarterly Pivot or Quarterly Support, most likely after the November election, then a rise to new all time highs into the end of the year. There is always the possibility new all time highs in October lead to a continued uptrend much higher. This would require another quarterly resistance breakout. The Bearish outcome would be a drop and continued failure below the Quarterly support with a probable drop back to the March lows.

Going into the last week of September look for resistance at MS 3318 and the MP 3422, with support at MS 3202/3112. Good Luck & Trade Safe.

SPX ~ Pivot Zones

SPX ~ Yearly Pivot Zones

 

SPX ~ Weekend Update

The SPX began the week with a gap down below the monthly pivot pushing into monthly support at the MTFZ~S at 3318/3291. As I failed to mention in last weekend’s post, the SPX confirmed a weekly downtrend on 9/4. The weekly DT continued this week as the SPX failed to break above the weekly pivot and then retested the low at monthly support.

I am still expecting the MTFZ~Support to hold and the uptrend to continue up into the next QR at 3712+, before any significant correction. So far this looks like a typical retest of the yearly breakout. The multi-day test of monthly support with the daily 13RSI holding above 40 is a positive. A daily close back above 3399 would confirm a weekly uptrend and the potential for the uptrend to resume.

If the SPX continues lower, a daily close below 3295 would trigger a monthly DT, which would end the uptrend from the March low. This would create three potential scenarios; 1) A quick reversal after the MDT confirms and the uptrend continues. 2) A multi-week DT that remains above the Yearly Pivot. 3) Worse case, a drop back to the March 2020 low.

Let’s see what the new week has in store for the SPX. Monthly support remains key at the MTFZ~S @ 3318/3291, with resistance at the MP @ 3433 and MTFZ~R @ 3548/3575. Good Luck & Trade Safe!

SPX ~ Pivot Zones

 

SPX ~ Weekend Update

The SPX confirmed a yearly uptrend on 8/18, and has since proceeded above the yearly test/fail zone at 3376/3471 and into the September MTFZ~R at 3548/3575.

So far the reaction at the MTFZ has held above the first monthly support at 3345, and also retesting the yearly breakout. If the MS 3345 holds then the uptrend should continue up to the next pivot resistance confluence at the MR 3663 and QR 3712. I’m not expecting a deeper pullback at this time, but if the MTFZ~S at 3318/3291 fails to hold look for a potential drop back to the yearly pivot at 2974. Good Luck & Trade Safe.

Happy Labor Day!  🇺🇸

SPX ~ Pivot Zones