You are currently browsing the monthly archive for January 2021.
This week the SPX failed at the QRZ on Tuesday, confirmed a weekly downtrend on Wednesday and closed below the monthly pivot on Friday.
The failure at quarterly resistance triggers three scenarios. First, the SPX may have bottomed on Friday, so don’t be surprised if the uptrend continues next week. The second scenario would be a one or two week consolidation above the February monthly support MTFZ~S @ 3645/3621 and the QP @ 3583, before the uptrend continues.The third scenario would be a larger multi-month correction dropping below the quarterly pivot, but holding above quarterly support QSZ @ 3320/3258. Good Luck and Trade Safe.
SPX ~ Pivot Zones
With all the hype on the rWSB’s silver squeeze and their brazen, somewhat misguided attack on the short-sellers. I felt the need to dust off the old SLV chart. There is certainly some validity in the price of SLV rocketing up near $50 in the next few months. My play, as always is to follow the Pivot Patterns. If the Pivot Pattern is valid, it would send SLV up into the Pivot Extension Zone (PEZ) @ 43.93 ~ 47.72. Look for the first level of resistance at the Yearly Pivot T/F Zone @ 29.26 ~ 31.25.
Will it be different this time? Time will tell. Let the games begin! Trade Safe……
The SPX began the new year with a sharp ‘outside down day’ dip below the January monthly pivot, but holding above the MTFZ~S. That bearish outside day was reversed with a close above at new highs within three days. Six days later the SPX retested that sinister looking candle and continued higher. This brings us up to date, with the SPX breaking above the MTFZ~R @ 3795/3780, and pushing up into the QRZ @ 3846/3908.
The SPX is now at 9 weekly trends up from the October 2020 low. As long as the SPX remains above the monthly pivot going forward the higher the probability it will continue the uptrend into the YTFZ~R @ 4020/4205. If the SPX continues to fail at the QRZ and breaks below the monthly pivot, then look for a test of the QP @ 3583 with the potential for a drop into the QSZ @ 3320/3258. Good Luck and Trade Safe!
SPX ~ Pivot Zones
Happy New Year!
Hopefully everyone learned from their mistakes in 2020 and can move on and improve their performance in 2021 and beyond. My Bullish outlook for the beginning of 2020 took somewhat of a detour as the Political Virus took hold of the World economies. The SPX slipped into a confirmed Bear Market with a nearly 33% drawdown. On the bright side, the longer term Yearly and 5 Year Pivots guided the path of the SPX quite well as they provided a key confluence of Pivot Support at the March low. The SPX recovered at those pivot levels and ended the year above my original target at the 5 year pivot resistance zone. Although some mistakes were made, many lessons were learned and the year turned out to be quite profitable.
What does the market have planned for us in 2021? Maybe I’m just a perpetual Bull, but I see the markets continuing this bullish uptrend. Although not without the periodic pullbacks and corrections along the way. The Trends guide in direction and the Pivot Zones provide potential levels of trend consolidation before continuation or trend termination and reversal. These guidelines will continue to determine how I interpret the markets strength and direction.
The end of year rally, while not necessarily strong, continued up in the final days of 2020. The SPX ended the year > 8% above the YTFZ~R breakout and 16% higher than the 2019 close. The SPX had multiple tests in September and October and then the eventual breakout in November of the YTFZ~R suggesting it is highly probable that the SPX continues up into the 2021 YTFZ~R. But with caution, as there is the potential the uptrend may stall early at the Monthly MTFZ~R 3795/3780 or at the Quarterly pivot resistance zone QRZ @ 3846/3908. Any failures at the Quarterly resistance zone will provide further guidance. A failure at the QRZ and a hold above monthly pivot support, either the MP @ 3716 or the MTFZ~S @ 3653/3638, would suggest the monthly uptrend that began at the October low will extend higher. A QRZ failure and a break below the MTFZ~Support would suggest the monthly uptrend has ended and the potential for a drop into Quarterly support QSZ @ 3320/3258 has begun.
The Quarterly Support Zone QSZ @ 3320/3258, along with the 2021 Yearly Pivot @ 3236 will determine the bullish tone for the year. The SPX remains above the YP @ 3236 and the uptrend should continue up to the next 5 Year Pivot resistance 5YR @ 4216. Failures to hold above the Yearly Pivot…..Well, that would suck! If and when the Yearly Pivot is tested that will be the time for concern. Until then, let’s see how the markets begin the new year and react at the upcoming QRZ. As always use your best judgement, follow some rules that will guide you and trade safe. Good Luck in the New Year!
SPX ~ Pivot Zones
SPX ~ Yearly Pivot Zones
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