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The SPX continued to test and fail at the MTFZ~R @ 3111/3146, and is now heading back down to test the YP/MP @ 2974/2960. The end of June and second quarter early this week will establish the key pivot support and resistance zones for the next three months. The 3rd quarter pivot and zones will be an integral part in determining the primary direction of the SPX going into the second half of the year, and whether or not the Bear market continues with a retest of the March low.
I’ll be updating the SPX chart again on Tuesday evening with the July monthly pivot zones and the 3rd quarter pivot zones. For the time being the key support remains at the YP/MP @ 2974/2960, a failure to hold this level would potentially drop support down to the MTFZ~S @ 2809/2773. Good Luck & Trade Safe.
SPX ~ Pivot Zones
The SPX gapped lower on Monday testing support at the YP/MP @ 2974/2960, then bounced and rallied strong closing the day higher. On Tuesday price continued higher but stalled at the MTFZ~R @ 3111/3146. The SPX continued to fail at the MTFZ resistance through the rest of the week, as the weekly downtrend remains in force.
The second quarter will be coming to a close in less than a week and a half. The SPX has continued the monthly uptrend, now with three monthly higher highs and higher lows coming off the fastest 35% percent Bear Market correction ever. If the third quarter continues higher and confirms the all important quarterly uptrend, the probability that the Bear Market has concluded is near 100%, based on my pivot theory.
But, lets not get ahead of the market. I’ll copy and past the same focus from last week, which remains on the monthly uptrend. If the SPX remains above support at the YP/MP @ 2974/2960, then look for a break and hold back above the failed MTFZ~R @ 3111/3146 to continue the trend. Otherwise continued failure at the MTFZ~R and a break below the YP/MP would suggest the monthly trend has concluded and the SPX would drop down to the MTFZ~S @ 2809/2773. Good Luck & Trade Safe.
SPX ~ Pivot Zones
The SPX pushed higher Monday topping at 3233, then failed and closed lower the next two days. On Thursday the SPX dropped back below the MTFZ~R, confirming a weekly downtrend. Friday dropped lower at 2984, holding above the MP and YP, also managing to close above the previous days close.
The SPX is at quite an inflection. While the SPX remains positive above the Yearly Pivot at 2974, it also remains below the key quarterly and yearly test/fail zone resistance at QRZ @ 3325/3467 & YTFZ @ 3376/3471. One final condition would qualify the Bull market resumes, this requires a quarterly uptrend confirmation.
The SPX yearly pivot chart below displays with red circles the last three similar weekly 13rsi oversold below 30 to overbought less than 60 inflections. The first one in November 2015 failed without a quarterly uptrend and retested the low, the next two in 2016 and 2019 confirmed quarterly uptrends and continued higher, eventually making new all time highs.
The present focus is on the monthly pivot and support to continue the monthly uptrend. If the SPX remains above support at the YP/MP @ 2974/2960, then look for a break and hold back above the failed MTFZ~R @ 3111/3146 to continue the trend. Otherwise continued failure at the MTFZ~R and a break below the YP/MP would take the SPX down to the MTFZ~S @ 2809/2773. Good Luck & Trade Safe
SPX ~ Pivot Zones
SPX ~ Yearly Pivot Zones
The SPX continued higher this week and closed above the June MTFZ~R @ 3111/3146 and the first quarterly resistance at 3183. This is the first close above a MTF resistance zone since February, and the continuation of the uptrend is subject to a successful test and hold above the MTF zone. Although the SPX is quite extended a consolidation above the MTFZ would be expected, but I would not rule out a strong continuation up into the quarterly resistance before the next significant pullback.
A note of caution displayed on the weekly chart below. The weekly 13RSI is just below 60. I have it at 59.66. No Bear market rallies exceed 13rsi 60. But, I will also note that strong bull market rallies off extreme oversold 13rsi </= 30 also stall at 60. Consider this level an inflection point over the next several weeks.
A continuation of the uptrend would take the SPX up into pivot confluence at the 5YR @ 3321, QR @ 3325 and the YR @ 3376. Any failure below the the MTFZ~R @ 3111/3146 would drop support to the YP @ 2974 and the MP @ 2960. Good Luck & Trade Safe.
SPX ~ Pivot Zones
SPX ~ Yearly Pivot Zones
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