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The SPX confirmed a weekly downtrend on Monday, and traded in a range below the WP all week, closing just below the YR2 @ 2965.
As I clearly pointed out in my September 6 post, the SPX must break above the MTFZ resistance zone before a sustained uptrend can continue. Until then, as my September 8 post details specific criteria that must be met for the monthly uptrend to continue. With the cautioning guidance of these two posts multiple tests of the MTFZ~R have occurred. The first test failed and dropped back just below the WP and above the WTFZ on 9/18. The second test also failed and fell back below the WTFZ~S on 9/27. The third criteria I described in the 9/8 post is now being tested; “Third, any failures at the MTFZ-R should hold support at the monthly pivot at 2921. This would keep the monthly uptrend alive.”. So far the monthly uptrend remains intact.
This brings us up to date. Now with this week’s WTFZ~S failure a test of the monthly pivot is more likely, but not certain. The short term support is at the WTFZ~S @ 2941/2933 and the MP @ 2921. Short term resistance is at the WP @ 2972 and WTFZ~R @ 3003/3010. A drop below the monthly pivot would justify more caution. Good Luck & Trade Safe.
SPX ~ Pivot Zones
SPX ~ Weekly Pivot Zones
The SPX’s weekly trend turned neutral with a close below the weekly pivot, but remained above last weeks low. The primary concern is the multiple failures at the quarterly, monthly and weekly pivot resistance confluence. This concern would be eliminated with a quick test of next weeks WTFZ support and a push up above this resistance confluence. For the time being the SPX remains in a positive yearly trend above the YR2 @ 2965 and the yearly test/fail zone (YTFZ) at 2965~2895.
With this weeks failure at WTFZ resistance look for short term support to hold at the WTFZ~S @ 2976/2971 and YR2 @ 2965. Short term resistance is at the WP @ 2998 and WTFZ~R @ 3019/3024. The continued failure at the MTFZ resistance signals caution and could result in a test of the monthly pivot at 2921. Good Luck & Trade Safe.
SPX ~ Pivot Zones
SPX ~ Weekly Pivot Zones
The SPX pushed higher into MTFZ resistance as expected. This week I would like to see the SPX hold and close above the WTFZ support. Good Luck & Trade Safe.
The SPX closed the week with a bullish WTFZ breakout and a monthly uptrend confirmation. While this certainly clears the SPX out of the August trading range, the SPX still must clear the overhead MTFZ resistance and make new highs.
Now that the SPX is in a confirmed weekly and monthly uptrend we have some specific criteria to guide us going forward. First, if the SPX is to continue this uptrend the weekly pivot and WTFZ-Support are key. Strong uptrends hold above the weekly pivot or the weekly support levels! (see weekly pivot zones for short term levels). Second, I would like to see a successful breach of overhead MTFZ-Resistance (see pivot zones chart) in the coming weeks. This may take multiple tests before a breach can occur. Third, any failures at the MTFZ-R should hold support at the monthly pivot at 2921. This would keep the monthly uptrend alive.
Otherwise, if the SPX fails to meet the pivot criteria then I would expect a retest of the August low, with a potential test of the quarterly support QS at 2789. Good Luck & Trade Safe.
SPX ~ Pivot Zones
SPX ~ Weekly Pivot Zones
The SPX has broken above the WTFZ~R, and is above the MP, plus a confirmed Monthly uptrend. Quite positive, but, the SPX must hold above the WTFZ for this to stick. The next targeted resistance is at the MTFZ @ 3017/3039. This is the zone I would like to see break before the SPX can continue the Bullish trend up. Good Luck & Trade Safe.
The SPX continues the test/fail process and consolidate inside the weekly pivot zones. Great for range trading, slightly aggravating when trying to grasp the bigger picture. If you’ve adapted to the Pivot Zones and removed all the other BS from your strategy, your trading/investing becomes much clearer.
On the positive side, the SPX had it’s first weekly close above a WPP since the last week of July, along with a weekly uptrend confirmation. To continue this positive scenario I would like to see a successful hold of this weeks pivot at 2907 and break above the WTFZ~R @ 2950/2960.
On the negative side, the SPX remains in a monthly downtrend, and continues trading below a wall of WTFZ~Resistance . The daily 13rsi remains below 60. With this negative scenario I would like to see the WTFZ~S @ 2863/2853 breached, with a hold of the pivot support confluence of MTFZ~S @ 2825/2802 and QS @ 2789. With caution of any sustained drop below the QS. Good Luck & Trade Safe
SPX ~ Pivot Zones
SPX ~ Weekly Pivot Zones
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